From the credit crisis to the debt crisis…let’s hope this pattern does not goes out of fashion and right into the realm of vintage.
Al recente vertice di Davos l’ economista americano Nuriel Roubini se n’ è uscito con una frase che ha irritato il ministro Tremonti al punto da farlo reagire stizzito. In parole povere ha detto che i paesi a minor crescita, Italia tra questi, nei prossimi anni potrebbero dover lasciare la zona euro. Non è scontato, ha aggiunto, ma non è nemmeno improbabile. (Repubblica, February 2006)
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L’euro è stata un’operazione commerciale cui non ha seguito un’operazione federativo-amministrativa. All’epoca io votai no per l’ingresso nell’Euro, ma insomma poche erano le speranze di restarne fuori…e adesso ne stiamo vedendo le conseguenze!
@ La Meringa….I am favorable to the Euro, and it could not be different since my first job was on the ECU (!!) project in Paris. Europe integration is the only chance we have.
It is true though, that the Euro implementation in Italy has been a total mess – as it was in Greece not surprisingly. Because these are not serious countries, let’s face it.
The Euro introduction generated huge domestic inflation, increasing the cleavage between employees and self-employed (or people who in general can fix the price for what they sell) and putting the real estate market in a bubble now completely crystalized by the banks.
This did not happen in the other European countries. Because they did put in place proper controls and SANCTIONS were actually enforced. As a matter of fact, the average Italian employee has the same disposable income level of 1999.
I agree with you that a monetary policy without a consistent EU fiscal policy is a lame duck.
But without the euro Italy could not, at any rate, have continued with its competitive-devaluation export-led magic, because the Berlin Wall came down and the world changed.
In the 80s Italy was the China of Europe. Now there’s China, but also Morocco, Romania, etc, all providing those low margin goods (deprived of innovation or tech content – be it furniture, food staples, shoes or semi-finished goods) that we used to export.
In the meantime the gap on biotech, engineering, IT (you name it) widened. And we keep on importing stuff. Try to imagine the impact of oil at USD 140 on our balance of paymentes if we hadn’t had the Euro!
This is a country tailored on petty traders, be they trattoria-owners stealing from the tourists or corporations cornering ports, airports, motorways, telco and soon energy with a little help of their friends. A country of petty traders, that’s what it is.
Sad for those glorious Italian manufacturing companies still trying to export innovation and racking their brains for competing everyday on the global markets…they really have a hard time with such an un-supportive environment.